Pac-10 football: Projecting the ‘09 race (could it be Oregon’s year, or Cal’s?)
Posted by Jon Wilner on February 18th, 2009 at 8:22 am
Part of an on-going, post-signing day, slightly-delayed series looking ahead to Pac-10 football in ‘09. (For the non-conference schedules, go here.)
Hotline readers know I was not all that high on the conference last fall, especially after the bad early-season results and despite the perfect (albeit misleading) bowl performance.
But I think the league will be strong in ‘09 even if the kingpin, USC, suffers a slight dip.
There should be six or seven quality teams (maybe eight, if UCLA doesn’t lose all its quarterbacks by May 1st.)
And the bottom won’t be as bad as it was last year … it cannot possibly be as bad as it was last year.
Here, then, are my from-the-hip, ridiculously-early, guaranteed-to-regret-them projections for the ‘09 season, to be updated after spring practice and then again during training camp.
1. USC: My bottom line when dealing with a bazillion-time defending champ: Pick them to win it the following year, and keep picking them to win it, until somebody knocks them off (same thing with UCLA basketball). That said, the Trojans will be vulnerable with a new quarterback and retooled defense — yes, even with all the vets at TB, WR and OL and the return of Taylor Mays: A new quarterback can make other units look mediocre in a hurry. Another issue is the schedule: It’s tough. Very tough. The Trojans play in Columbus and Berkeley early, before the new QB has a chance to settle in. (They also visit Eugene and South Bend.) And there’s no reason to think USC won’t lose a game it shouldn’t, since it does that every year. Toss it all together and we could be looking at 9-3 or — gasp! — 8-4 … I know, I know: There’s too much talent for three losses. We’ll see.
Posted by Jon Wilner on February 18th, 2009 at 8:22 am
Part of an on-going, post-signing day, slightly-delayed series looking ahead to Pac-10 football in ‘09. (For the non-conference schedules, go here.)
Hotline readers know I was not all that high on the conference last fall, especially after the bad early-season results and despite the perfect (albeit misleading) bowl performance.
But I think the league will be strong in ‘09 even if the kingpin, USC, suffers a slight dip.
There should be six or seven quality teams (maybe eight, if UCLA doesn’t lose all its quarterbacks by May 1st.)
And the bottom won’t be as bad as it was last year … it cannot possibly be as bad as it was last year.
Here, then, are my from-the-hip, ridiculously-early, guaranteed-to-regret-them projections for the ‘09 season, to be updated after spring practice and then again during training camp.
1. USC: My bottom line when dealing with a bazillion-time defending champ: Pick them to win it the following year, and keep picking them to win it, until somebody knocks them off (same thing with UCLA basketball). That said, the Trojans will be vulnerable with a new quarterback and retooled defense — yes, even with all the vets at TB, WR and OL and the return of Taylor Mays: A new quarterback can make other units look mediocre in a hurry. Another issue is the schedule: It’s tough. Very tough. The Trojans play in Columbus and Berkeley early, before the new QB has a chance to settle in. (They also visit Eugene and South Bend.) And there’s no reason to think USC won’t lose a game it shouldn’t, since it does that every year. Toss it all together and we could be looking at 9-3 or — gasp! — 8-4 … I know, I know: There’s too much talent for three losses. We’ll see.
2. Cal: The Bears have a legit shot at the Rose Bowl, as they appeared to have in ‘06. All they need is decent quarterback play, because there’s enough returning talent at TB, WR and OL for them to score a ton of points. And the defense should be very strong on the line and in the backfield and better than expected at linebacker. The biggest question that does not directly involve the QBs is how the Bears handle the expectations of a preseason top-15 ranking (and any possible Pac-10 title talk that might follow). They seem to fare better when starting the season away from the spotlight. Also, getting USC in Berkeley in early October is big. Also also, not having Nate Longshore around to tempt Tedford in BIG.
3. Oregon: There’s a reason Mike Bellotti might stay on the job another year: The Ducks have a legit shot at the BCS, either as an at-large team or as the Pac-10 champ. The schedule includes Boise State, Purdue and Utah, so it carries enough punch to help the Ducks in the computer/human polls but not so much that Oregon can’t go 3-0. With Jeremiah Masoli and LeGarrette Blount (assuming he’s in good graces) returning, we know the offense will have some pop, even if the line must be reworked. And don’t forget about WR Drew Davis, who should be back from injury. The defense lost a bunch of talent, from Nick Reed to Jairus Byrd and Patrick Chung. Still, as long as the unit can hold opponents to 30, the Ducks should be fine. Cal and USC must go to Eugene.
4. UCLA: A solid upperclass talent base combined with two stellar recruiting years combined with the second season in Norm Chow’s system combined with a (presumably) healthy QB not named Craft combined with the defensive duo of tackle Brian Price and cornerback Alterraun Verner … it should all result in more than four victories. Many more. If you’re looking for a sleeper, the Bruins are it. My bottom line: Only two or three coaches would refuse to trade their roster for UCLA’s.
5. Oregon State: The second-best program in the conference over the past three years should be an upper-division finisher again. The Beavers lose WR Sammie Stroughter and OL Andy Levitre but bring back both Rodgers and both quarterbacks. The issue will be replacing eight defensive starters (Victor Butler and Brandon Hughes, for example). Of course, I thought that would be an issue last fall and OSU was one game from the Rose Bowl. So … woe to anyone who picks against the Beavers ever again. Mike Riley, with superb support from Mark Banker, does more with less than anyone in the league. And since the “less” is steadily becoming more, the floor keeps rising.
6. Arizona State: Admittedly, this projection is based more on faith than fact. I was a non-believer in ‘07 (soft schedule) and skeptical in ‘08 (tougher schedule), but I have to think ASU will be much improved next fall even without Rudy Carpenter. Dennis Erickson is simply too good a college coach, and has too many returning starters/letterwinners, to suffer another sub-.500 season. With OSU, Cal and USC all headed to Tempe, he’ll find a way to win six or seven games.
7. Stanford: Yes, this might seem a bit low for what looks like a program on the rise — probably lower than the summer mags and the media poll will have the Cardinal. With most of its starters on offense and defense returning from a team that won five games, you’d think Stanford will be better in ‘09 and improve on its victory total (five). Except that: It loses two key offensive linemen in C Alex Fletcher and LT Ben Muth and top LB in Pat Maynor, plus CB Wopamo Osaisai; it lost assistant coach/running-game guru Chris Dalman; the schedule isn’t easier and the league is better; and the Cardinal still has a question at quarterback. Maybe Andrew Luck is as good as advertized, but will he be that good as a freshman? Having said that, we could have a situation in which one game separates fourth place from eighth, and I’d expect the Cardinal to be smack in the middle of that mix.
8. Arizona: The Cats return more starters than they lose, but the ones they lose are big ones (Willie Tuitama, Eben Britton, Mike Thomas, to name three). And as Hotline readers know, I have little confidence in Mike Stoops’ ability to make the most out of his talent. He had a good senior quarterback, two conference gimmes, a weak non-league schedule and job-on-the-line urgency working for him in ‘08 and he still won just seven games in the regular season. Next fall, with a fat new contract, no proven QB and a tougher schedule, the Cats will take a step or two backwards.
9. Washington: Huskies should be much-improved due to 1) slightly-easier schedule, 2) new-coach bounce, 3) a healthy Jake Locker (presumably) and 4) a load of returning starters, several of which are fairly talented — the late-Willingham-era signees. But “much-improved” might only mean two or three wins.
10. Washington State: Another team that should be better and still bad. As long as the Cougs don’t have to hold open QB tryouts during the season, they should beat an out-of-state FBS team. Which one, I’m not exactly sure
3. Oregon: There’s a reason Mike Bellotti might stay on the job another year: The Ducks have a legit shot at the BCS, either as an at-large team or as the Pac-10 champ. The schedule includes Boise State, Purdue and Utah, so it carries enough punch to help the Ducks in the computer/human polls but not so much that Oregon can’t go 3-0. With Jeremiah Masoli and LeGarrette Blount (assuming he’s in good graces) returning, we know the offense will have some pop, even if the line must be reworked. And don’t forget about WR Drew Davis, who should be back from injury. The defense lost a bunch of talent, from Nick Reed to Jairus Byrd and Patrick Chung. Still, as long as the unit can hold opponents to 30, the Ducks should be fine. Cal and USC must go to Eugene.
4. UCLA: A solid upperclass talent base combined with two stellar recruiting years combined with the second season in Norm Chow’s system combined with a (presumably) healthy QB not named Craft combined with the defensive duo of tackle Brian Price and cornerback Alterraun Verner … it should all result in more than four victories. Many more. If you’re looking for a sleeper, the Bruins are it. My bottom line: Only two or three coaches would refuse to trade their roster for UCLA’s.
5. Oregon State: The second-best program in the conference over the past three years should be an upper-division finisher again. The Beavers lose WR Sammie Stroughter and OL Andy Levitre but bring back both Rodgers and both quarterbacks. The issue will be replacing eight defensive starters (Victor Butler and Brandon Hughes, for example). Of course, I thought that would be an issue last fall and OSU was one game from the Rose Bowl. So … woe to anyone who picks against the Beavers ever again. Mike Riley, with superb support from Mark Banker, does more with less than anyone in the league. And since the “less” is steadily becoming more, the floor keeps rising.
6. Arizona State: Admittedly, this projection is based more on faith than fact. I was a non-believer in ‘07 (soft schedule) and skeptical in ‘08 (tougher schedule), but I have to think ASU will be much improved next fall even without Rudy Carpenter. Dennis Erickson is simply too good a college coach, and has too many returning starters/letterwinners, to suffer another sub-.500 season. With OSU, Cal and USC all headed to Tempe, he’ll find a way to win six or seven games.
7. Stanford: Yes, this might seem a bit low for what looks like a program on the rise — probably lower than the summer mags and the media poll will have the Cardinal. With most of its starters on offense and defense returning from a team that won five games, you’d think Stanford will be better in ‘09 and improve on its victory total (five). Except that: It loses two key offensive linemen in C Alex Fletcher and LT Ben Muth and top LB in Pat Maynor, plus CB Wopamo Osaisai; it lost assistant coach/running-game guru Chris Dalman; the schedule isn’t easier and the league is better; and the Cardinal still has a question at quarterback. Maybe Andrew Luck is as good as advertized, but will he be that good as a freshman? Having said that, we could have a situation in which one game separates fourth place from eighth, and I’d expect the Cardinal to be smack in the middle of that mix.
8. Arizona: The Cats return more starters than they lose, but the ones they lose are big ones (Willie Tuitama, Eben Britton, Mike Thomas, to name three). And as Hotline readers know, I have little confidence in Mike Stoops’ ability to make the most out of his talent. He had a good senior quarterback, two conference gimmes, a weak non-league schedule and job-on-the-line urgency working for him in ‘08 and he still won just seven games in the regular season. Next fall, with a fat new contract, no proven QB and a tougher schedule, the Cats will take a step or two backwards.
9. Washington: Huskies should be much-improved due to 1) slightly-easier schedule, 2) new-coach bounce, 3) a healthy Jake Locker (presumably) and 4) a load of returning starters, several of which are fairly talented — the late-Willingham-era signees. But “much-improved” might only mean two or three wins.
10. Washington State: Another team that should be better and still bad. As long as the Cougs don’t have to hold open QB tryouts during the season, they should beat an out-of-state FBS team. Which one, I’m not exactly sure
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